Breadcrumbs
The state of the countryside 2020 – 2 April 2003
Kickstarting the debate with a new report on the State of the Countryside 2020, Countryside Agency chief executive Richard Wakeford said: “Unless we look forward, there’s a risk of little steps that don’t add up to the journey that’s necessary. The way people act now will shape the physical environment and communities of tomorrow’s countryside. We cannot treat our countryside as an island. We value it as a place to live, to work and to visit, yet wider drivers are leading to fundamental change.
“This is the first piece of work to take a broad yet systematic look at the future of the English countryside, identifying the main drivers of change and key uncertainties, and developing scenarios for the future. We are not attempting to predict that future – nor are we setting out our vision of what we would like the countryside to be in 2020. We are encouraging people to identify and address the right questions to achieve sustainable development.
“Our report highlights the impact of more intense global competition on the countryside, resulting in consolidation and new niche players; in a fast-moving ‘network’ world powered by ICT, outsourcing will be taken to more radical extremes. The need for homes continues to rise as we see an increase in single person households and longer life expectancy; commuter countryside will continue to expand but country towns will become increasingly desirable targets for new or relocating business. Powerful forces of social fragmentation will work against the traditional strong sense of community in rural areas; and there are mixed prospects for the physical environment of the countryside. Agriculture will still form an
important economic driver and will grasp new opportunities. But biotechnology and the drive for increased renewables will reshape the products of the land and the landscape.”
Mr Wakeford concluded: “As a society we have reached a broad consensus that sustainability matters – in principle. The challenge is to move towards a society where these ideals are reflected in people’s daily choices. This won’t be easy, or cheap. It needs decisions to be taken in a long term and holistic context. It needs real leadership to achieve consensus. It needs a different attitude to investment. It may need more intervention than some of us are comfortable with. And it needs us to face up to the tensions and trade-offs, so that people can make informed choices.
“The most critical issue is whether environmental, social and economic development can be combined to achieve lasting positive progress on all fronts. We cannot ignore change, but we must seek to understand it before we try to shape it. That way we can begin to identify what we and others need to do to shape the countryside of 2020, based on sound evidence and analysis.”
The research team advising the Countryside Agency identified four scenarios for the future of rural England, outlined in the report. All assume sustained economic growth but they differ in the emphasis on social and environmental consideration. None of the scenarios are radically different or shocking, they represent paths which diverge incrementally now, reflecting the cumulative effect of many, many individual choices:
- In ‘The countryside means business’ rural economies grow but at the expense of environmental and social sustainability. There are pressures for more roads, housing to combat labour shortages and more intensive agricultural production. Many prosper but income gaps widen, people feel excluded from decision makers and developers are increasingly at odds with environmentalists.
- ‘Go for green’ describes a more environmentally sustainable future, but one in which the English countryside is more socially fragmented. Meeting targets for brownfield development is prioritised, planning gain is tilted away from homes for the poor towards building in recycling and energy efficiency: planning guidelines favour urban extensions, tax breaks and road charging are used to limit growth, and substantial sums to farmers to raise environmental standards.
- ‘All on board’ is a scenario in which labour shortages, traffic congestion and a shift in values combine to place more emphasis on social cohesion. It includes a relaxation of planning controls to allow more extensive and dispersed devleopments, planning gain used to ‘pack in’ affordable homes. Congestion leads to big rises in teleworking, leading to more working from home and local networking, with more emphasis on investment in those at the edge of labour market.
- In ‘The triple whammy’, economic, social and environmental sustainability combine. The economy changes direction radically to become both greener and more inclusive. Many homes are still built in the countryside, but with an emphasis on concentrated developments, strategic dispersal of settlements, affordable homes and design. As broadband matures, services are decentralised and village life begins to revive.
Whilst the latter is the scenario most people are likely to want, the report points out this will be very demanding and expensive, calling for high levels of skills and collaboration.
The State of the Countryside 2020 (Ref CA138) is available from Countryside Publications,
P.O. Box 125, Wetherby, West Yorkshire LS23 7EP or log on to our web site at www.countryside.gov.uk/stateofthecountryside. A full report of the research by the Tomorrow Project is also published on our web site.
-ends-
Note to editors:
The Countryside Agency is the statutory body working to make the quality of the life better for people in the countryside and the quality of the countryside better for everyone.
The State of the Countryside 2020 research was undertaken for the Countryside Agency by
Dr Michael Moynagh and Richard Worsley of the Tomorrow Project, an independent charity supporting organisations and individuals in thinking about the future of people’s lives in the United Kingdom.
